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The Iran–US conflict is no longer a distant geopolitical contest. For India, it is a direct and present threat to economic stability, energy security, and national strategic interests. As the world’s third-largest oil importer and a country with deep civilisational, commercial, and diplomatic ties to both the Persian Gulf region and the West, India cannot afford to watch from the sidelines. The escalating confrontation between Washington and Tehran places India’s most vital national interests squarely in the line of fire. India imports over 85% of its crude oil requirements, consuming more than five million barrels per day. The Persian Gulf supplies the overwhelming majority of this crude. Any military confrontation between Iran and the United States would immediately convulse global oil markets, sending crude prices to levels that could shatter India’s fiscal arithmetic. A sustained conflict or — far worse — a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil flows daily, would trigger an energy emergency. Oil above $150 per barrel would widen India’s current account deficit dramatically, weaken the rupee, stoke inflation, and force the government into painful fiscal choices between subsidies and stability. Before Washington re-imposed sanctions in 2018, Iran was among India’s top three oil suppliers, offering competitive prices and favourable credit terms. That supply line has been choked. A conflict would eliminate it permanently and price India out of regional energy security for years.India’s national security exposure to the Iran–US conflict extends well beyond oil prices. Over nine million Indians live and work in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, remitting more than $40 billion annually — India’s single largest foreign exchange earner. A regional war would endanger their lives, demand costly evacuation operations reminiscent of Operation Kaveri and Operation Rahat, and sever those remittances overnight.India’s strategic investment in Chabahar Port — its carefully constructed gateway to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the International North–South Transport Corridor bypassing Pakistan — is equally at risk. India has committed over $500 million to Chabahar’s development. A war would render this investment worthless and extinguish India’s hard-won connectivity advantage in the region. Additionally, the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping — a proxy dimension of the Iran conflict — have already disrupted Indian trade routes, raised freight costs, and forced rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and millions in costs to Indian exporters.India must pursue a clear-eyed, interest-driven strategy. On energy, New Delhi must urgently diversify oil import sources — deepening engagement with African producers, maintaining the Russia oil discount pipeline, and accelerating domestic renewable capacity to reduce structural dependence on Gulf crude. Strategic petroleum reserves must be expanded to at least ninety days of consumption, creating a meaningful buffer against supply shocks.On Chabahar, India must press Washington persistently for durable, long-term sanctions waivers, framing the port as a regional stabiliser aligned with American interests in Central Asian connectivity. Simultaneously, India must keep its diplomatic channel to Tehran open and active, using back-channel communication to preserve the bilateral relationship regardless of the broader conflict’s trajectory.On its diaspora, India must develop and rehearse comprehensive evacuation protocols for the Gulf, and engage GCC governments to ensure Indian workers receive protection in any conflict scenario. Diaspora safety is a national security matter, not merely a consular one.Strategic autonomy must be the non-negotiable foundation of India’s approach. India cannot be Washington’s instrument against Tehran, nor Tehran’s shield against Washington. Its foreign policy must be anchored in national interest — energy security, diaspora welfare, trade access, and strategic connectivity — not ideological alignment with either power.India should use every multilateral platform — the United Nations, G20, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — to consistently advocate for dialogue, nuclear diplomacy, and de-escalation. India’s unique position as a nation trusted by both sides gives it rare credibility as a back-channel interlocutor. That diplomatic capital must be actively deployed, not preserved unused.Multi-alignment is India’s greatest foreign policy asset in this crisis. The ability to engage simultaneously with Washington, Tehran, Riyadh, Moscow, and Beijing — without being captive to any — is precisely what the moment demands. India must speak clearly to all parties: that regional war serves no one’s interests, that the nuclear question must return to diplomatic channels, and that India’s own stability and growth are stakes the world cannot afford to ignore. In the Iran–US conflict, Indian passivity is not neutrality — it is a failure of statecraft
